AlcBev In Five

The daily five-minute brief on the beer, wine and spirits business.

Daily brief · 5 min
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The day's stories

01

Impact Databank: RTDs Lift Spirits Volume As Core Softens

Shanken's Impact Databank projects a 31st straight annual rise in U.S. spirits volume, but ready-to-drinks are carrying it while core categories weaken — a mix problem for volume and pricing plans.

The U.S. spirits market is projected to post its 31st consecutive annual volume increase this year, reaching 313.4 million 9-liter cases, according to the current edition of The U.S. Spirits Market: Shanken's Impact Databank Review & Forecast, as reported by Shanken News Daily. Per the Databank, that growth is being carried by ready-to-drinks while core spirits categories soften under what the report describes as continuing economic pressure. The split suggests headline volume growth and category health are moving in different directions, which would matter for anyone setting volume and pricing plans off the topline figure.

02

Scotch Distillers Pause Production Amid Supply Glut

The Guardian reports Scottish distilleries are halting production to avoid adding to a "whisky loch" of unsold stock — near-term surplus for buyers, a possible mature-stock gap later.

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Global demand for Scotch whisky has slumped, prompting distilleries across Scotland to pause production rather than add to the oversupply known as a "whisky loch" — the whisky equivalent of a "wine lake" — according to The Guardian, as reported by supplychainbrain.com. Because Scotch must age for years before it can be sold, the pauses amount to a bet on demand well beyond the current cycle. The reported effect is twofold: surplus-driven pricing for buyers in the near term, and a potential shortfall of mature stock for brand owners once the aging gap arrives.

03

Keg 1 Signs Agreement To Buy RNDC's Kentucky Assets

Keg 1 River City and K1 Management Services have converted August's letter of intent into a signed purchase agreement for RNDC's Kentucky business, putting the distributor's state exit under contract.

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Keg 1 River City and K1 Management Services signed a letter of intent in August to purchase the former RNDC business in Kentucky, and the companies have now signed an agreement to acquire RNDC's Kentucky assets, according to Shanken News Daily. Per the companies, the move puts RNDC's exit from the state under contract. Suppliers and retailers in Kentucky would face a distributor handoff to Keg 1 if and when the deal closes; terms have not been disclosed.

04

Circana: Large Beer Suppliers' Losses Outweigh Gains Into Labor Day

Circana's latest monthly report has top-heavy declines still exceeding gains among the biggest beer vendors in August and early September, with New Belgium and Sazerac cited as exceptions.

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Gains among the largest beer vendors continued to be outweighed by top-heavy losses in August and early September, in the run-up to Labor Day, according to the latest monthly report from market research firm Circana, as reported by Brewbound. The report cites New Belgium, Sazerac and others as running counter to that trend. Per Circana's figures, the pattern is consistent with share moving down the vendor rankings rather than the category contracting uniformly.

Also moving today

  • Breakthru CCO Talks Backing Out of RNDC Deal, Priority Categories BevNETBrewbound
  • Why mid-strength spirits offer new threat to wine industry Just Drinks
  • Molson Coors finalises Sharp’s production plans Just DrinksCornwall Live
  • Scotch whisky gets cheaper? Johnnie Walker, J&B prices fall 10-15% after India-UK trade agreement, says report | Company Business News mint
Read the transcript
Welcome in, today is Thursday, October first, and we begin with Shanken's Impact Databank, where U.S. spirits volume is set to rise for a thirty-first straight year. Spirits volume in the United States is on track to rise for a thirty-first consecutive year, reaching three hundred thirteen point four million nine-liter cases. That comes from Shanken News Daily, citing the current edition of The U.S. Spirits Market, Shanken's Impact Databank Review and Forecast. The outlet carries it as an exclusive, and we have not seen it matched elsewhere. The same reporting frames that growth as uneven, with ready-to-drinks still adding volume while core spirits soften under what it describes as persistent economic pressure. The shape of that is a mix question rather than a demand question. Total cases keep climbing, and the formats doing the climbing carry different margins, different route-to-market economics and different shelf sets than the bottles behind them. For anyone setting next year's volume and pricing plans, a thirty-first straight increase is the easy part. The composition underneath it is what the plan has to absorb. Scotch distillers are slowing production. Supply Chain Brain, relaying The Guardian, reports pauses across Scotland as global demand slumps and stock builds into what the trade calls a whisky loch. That account puts economic pressure and falling consumption in Scotch's wealthiest markets behind the slump, after a fifteen-year boom, and says dozens of Scotland's one hundred fifty-six active distilleries are rumoured to be up for sale. Because the liquid has to age for years, a pause now is a bet on demand well past this cycle, surplus pricing for buyers today and a possible mature-stock gap later. The strain shows elsewhere. Per The Spirits Business, the community-owned GlenWyvis distillery appointed administrators on September twenty-third after failing to secure funding. The same supply chain report has Diageo workers at Cameronbridge striking last week over the company's plans to cut hundreds of jobs in Scotland. Industry reaction treats cask and rare-bottle investment pitches as the glut's soft spot. To distribution, where RNDC's exit from Kentucky is now under contract. Shanken News Daily reports Keg 1 River City and K1 Management Services have signed an agreement to acquire RNDC's Kentucky assets, following the letter of intent the two signed in August. Terms are not disclosed in that account. For suppliers and retailers in the state, that sets up a distributor handoff, with brand transitions and account coverage to be worked out if and when the deal closes. Some in the trade read the sale as one piece of a piecemeal wind-down rather than a turnaround, and a recurring point is the sequencing: a larger prospective buyer stepping back from its own letter of intent before a smaller regional operator stepped in, which some treat as a sign that appetite for distressed distribution assets is selective, market by market. Beer's softness is still concentrated at the top of the vendor list. Per Circana's latest monthly report, via Brewbound, gains among the largest beer vendors were again outweighed by top-heavy losses through August and into early September, up to Labor Day, with New Belgium and Sazerac among those running against the trend. That account carries no figures beyond the direction of travel. It follows our earlier report on declines persisting across most segments while convenience showed potential, and it moves the question from how deep the softness runs to who is absorbing it, with share appearing to move down the vendor ranks rather than out of the category. Reaction leans toward dispersion rather than a uniform slide, with some practitioners framing assortment and limited shelf slots as the operative constraint. Now, a few more headlines moving the trade today. BevNET has Breakthru Beverage's chief commercial officer accounting for August's walk-away from RNDC's Kentucky and Indiana operations, and setting out a cautious path on priority categories. Just Drinks argues Diageo's mid-strength trio, following our earlier report on that launch, could give the sub-category momentum and hand wine another challenge, with that read expecting both consumer confusion and cannibalisation. Molson Coors has settled where Sharp's is made. Per Cornwall Live and Just Drinks, the Cornwall brewery closes in December with forty jobs lost, Camerons takes cask brands including Doom Bar, and keg and packaged production shifts to Burton and Tadcaster. And finally, Mint, citing Economic Times, reports Scotch prices in India down ten to fifteen percent since the UK trade pact took effect, the first shelf-level read on whether Diageo and Pernod Ricard pass the duty cut through.